Independent proposal for public review. Evidence date: 4 November 2026. Pilot sizes, targets and institutional roles are proposed. Baselines, institutional acceptance, quotations, specialist review and funding require confirmation before implementation.
2040 citizen vision
Resilient farms earn dependable incomes while households can buy safe, affordable food.
Proposed pilot and beneficiaries
A 100-farm coastal cluster, two or three crops and at least two independent buyers. Select the location from Regions 2–6 after water, demand and participation checks.
Rationale and evidence
The earlier agriculture model provides a practical starting point. The new proposal adds weekly buyer commitments, payment discipline and full farm economics. National agriculture allocation context is G$113.2 billion for 2026 [S1]; the pilot has a separate funding decision.
Delivery approach
- Agree buyer specifications, weekly demand, grading, rejection and payment terms; compare locally delivered costs with competing supply.
- Audit drainage dependencies, farm records and handling losses; schedule planting around feasible water and collection capacity.
- Use reusable crates and existing leased collection/storage assets; test routes before proposing new facilities.
First 90 days from authorised start
Days 1–30: recruit voluntarily, measure one comparable crop baseline and obtain buyer letters. Days 31–60: agree crop calendars and cost the minor works and logistics. Days 61–90: begin eligible deliveries as crop cycles permit.
Months 4–12
Operate through relevant seasonal conditions; reconcile farm costs and buyer payments monthly; evaluate after at least one complete crop cycle before replication.
Proposed accountability and competencies
Proposed accountable lead: Ministry of Agriculture. Operating partners: New GMC, NAREI, NDIA, participating producers and private buyers. Required skills: agronomy, water engineering, aggregation, quality control and enterprise accounting.
Resources, funding and recurrent costs
Quote farm assessments, 500 reusable crates, coordinator time, route/storage leases, buyer trials and evaluation. The earlier G$23.28m illustrative model remains a historical planning assumption; reprice it and add engineered works and farm working capital separately. Buyers and producers need a commercially funded logistics model.
Feasibility and expansion gate
Advance when water conditions, buyer demand and operating margins are credible. Assess sugar, rice and feed crops through separate business cases. Fisheries companion below requires its own stock, biosecurity and market assessment.
Measurement and proposed pilot thresholds
Baseline status: pending local verification for every measure. Confirm definitions, sample, reporting owner and realistic thresholds before implementation. All percentage-point changes use the same defined cohort; relative reductions are calculated against the verified baseline.
| Type / measure |
Definition |
Proposed target |
Data owner / cadence |
| Result · Median real net farm earnings |
Revenue less all production costs, including family labour and depreciation, price-adjusted; compare matched crop seasons. |
Proposed: +10% after 12 months. |
Farm records officer; seasonal |
| Result · Handling loss |
Unsaleable handling-related kg ÷ tracked harvested kg ×100. |
Proposed: 20% relative reduction. |
Aggregation operator; weekly |
| Activity · Purchase plans agreed |
Participating farms with documented crop and buyer schedules ÷ enrolled farms ×100. |
Proposed: 90% before planting. |
Coordinator; monthly |
| Activity · Invoices paid on time |
Invoices paid by agreed due date ÷ invoices due ×100. |
Proposed: at least 90%. |
Operator finance officer; weekly |
Complementary initiative
Traceable Fisheries and Aquaculture: test one landing-site cold chain and one buyer-backed aquaculture cohort. Validate stock sustainability, feed cost, disease controls, food safety and operator margins before adding capacity.
Proposed 2030 milestone
By 2030, replicate only clusters with independently checked earnings, reliable buyer payments and funded water/handling maintenance.
Evidence confidence and required verification
Medium for direction; local commercial and engineering evidence pending.
Evidence and sources
[S1] [S1] Government: passage of Budget 2026, 14 February 2026
Confirms sector allocations. Allocations establish fiscal context; access, releases, expenditure and outputs require separate verification.
[S2] [S2] IMF: 2026 Article IV consultation, 8 October 2026
Supports productivity, spending oversight, diversification, skills and climate resilience as national priorities.
The earlier roadmap research informs this proposal. Read the portfolio roadmap and review standard.
Funding status: Uncommitted. Proposed institutional roles require acceptance. Next editorial review: 4 February 2027, or earlier when material evidence changes.
