Independent proposal for public review. Evidence date: 4 November 2026. Pilot sizes, targets and institutional roles are proposed. Baselines, institutional acceptance, quotations, specialist review and funding require confirmation before implementation.
2040 citizen vision
Viable enterprises obtain suitable finance and use it to create productive, sustainable earnings.
Proposed pilot and beneficiaries
Fifty SMEs, at least two prospective lenders and participating business-support organisations. Begin with a diagnostic and lender criteria; lending remains the lender’s independent decision.
Rationale and evidence
Earlier research cautions against treating credit as a complete enterprise solution [R1]. The proposal connects reliable accounts, governance, markets and repayment capacity to lender assessment.
Delivery approach
- Standardise cash-flow forecasts, management accounts, ownership information and use-of-funds plans.
- Provide practical support for pricing, working-capital control and operating systems, with provider conflicts disclosed.
- Agree transparent application stages with lenders and track both approvals and reasons for deferral or rejection.
First 90 days from authorised start
Days 1–30: secure lender participation and voluntary SME consent. Days 31–60: assess records, governance and viability. Days 61–90: complete first lender-ready files and baseline response times.
Months 4–12
Track use of funds, business cash flow and repayment outcomes; compare outcomes across similar firms and publish anonymised findings.
Proposed accountability and competencies
Proposed lead: a participating enterprise-support institution selected transparently. Partners: lenders, accountants and chambers. Skills: SME finance, business diagnostics, credit analysis and monitoring. ACI may be considered through a transparent selection process with conflicts declared.
Resources, funding and recurrent costs
Quote adviser time per SME, bookkeeping support, independent review and cohort coordination. Any loan capital, guarantee exposure or subsidy needs separate approval and risk pricing. Sustained support requires a disclosed service model.
Feasibility and expansion gate
Verify lender terms and consumer/business protections with qualified advisers. Share financial records only with consent; avoid promising finance or treating programme participation as a credit guarantee.
Measurement and proposed pilot thresholds
Baseline status: pending local verification for every measure. Confirm definitions, sample, reporting owner and realistic thresholds before implementation. All percentage-point changes use the same defined cohort; relative reductions are calculated against the verified baseline.
| Type / measure |
Definition |
Proposed target |
Data owner / cadence |
| Result · Viable applications reaching decision |
Complete applications receiving a reasoned lender decision ÷ complete applications submitted ×100. |
Proposed: 80% within agreed service window. |
Programme/lender coordinator; monthly |
| Result · Debt service coverage |
Cash available for debt service ÷ scheduled debt service, with lender-defined adjustments. |
Threshold: lender-approved for each borrower. |
Lender; quarterly |
| Activity · Reliable monthly accounts produced |
SMEs producing reconciled accounts on schedule ÷ cohort ×100. |
Proposed: 80% by month six. |
SME accountant; monthly |
| Activity · Readiness actions completed |
Verified actions completed ÷ agreed actions due ×100. |
Proposed: 85%. |
Programme manager; monthly |
Complementary initiative
Public Investment Appraisal and Fiscal Value: establish a common project appraisal and recurrent-cost template with Finance and Governance; connect to the public project record proposal and count shared work once.
Proposed 2030 milestone
By 2030, participating support programmes publish financing turnaround, repayment and productivity outcomes with clear cohort definitions.
Evidence confidence and required verification
Medium for approach; current SME demand, lender participation and credit outcomes pending.
Evidence and sources
[S2] [S2] IMF: 2026 Article IV consultation, 8 October 2026
Supports productivity, spending oversight, diversification, skills and climate resilience as national priorities.
The earlier roadmap research informs this proposal. Read the portfolio roadmap and review standard.
Funding status: Uncommitted. Proposed institutional roles require acceptance. Next editorial review: 4 February 2027, or earlier when material evidence changes.
